A recent report from JPMorgan Asset Management underscores the ongoing dominance of US companies in the global stock market, primarily fueled by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). The firm’s 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released on Monday, suggests that while the market capitalization share of US companies is projected to decrease from 64% to 60% by 2037, the United States will still maintain a substantial lead over its closest competitor, China.
Monica Issar, JPMorgan Asset Management’s global head of multi-asset and portfolio solutions, shared insights during a media roundtable on Monday, emphasizing that the benefits of AI are expected to extend beyond a select few tech giants that have dominated recent market rallies. This widespread impact is anticipated to boost the overall market capitalization of US firms across various industries.
Issar outlined two primary factors contributing to this optimistic outlook: revenue generation and improved profit margins. Increased investment in AI technologies is likely to benefit companies outside of the traditional tech sphere, as established tech firms, such as Nvidia, invest heavily in AI chips. As demand for AI solutions grows, companies in sectors like Utilities and Energy will also see increased spending as they support the evolving needs of AI operations.
Moreover, AI’s role in enhancing operational efficiency and automating basic tasks could lead to significant cost reductions, thereby increasing profit margins for US corporations. “It’s going to be the US predominantly, and then obviously Europe will follow, as we start to see more adoption there,” Issar stated.
The current scale of US dominance is illustrated by the fact that Nvidia’s market capitalization surpasses that of most G7 countries, as highlighted by Torsten Sløk, chief global economist at Apollo, in a research note. However, he cautioned that the market’s heavy reliance on Nvidia poses certain risks. “Global equity markets, including retirement allocations to equities, are basically leveraged to Nvidia,” Sløk remarked. “Let’s hope the value of Nvidia doesn’t decline significantly.”
Contrastingly, other analysts maintain a more optimistic perspective regarding the influence of AI on the market. Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, noted in a recent report that the S&P 500 could average more than 10% annual returns over the next decade, attributing this potential to the US’s leading role in AI adoption and its favorable positioning for future growth.
Colas further asserted that the likelihood of a non-US tech company emerging to challenge the dominance of established giants such as Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta is “almost zero.” He emphasized that the US remains a powerhouse in global venture capital, suggesting that any new US company with the potential to disrupt the current landscape would likely go public and become part of the S&P 500, thereby contributing to future market gains.
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