Bitcoin surged to an all-time high as global traders tracked the unfolding results of the highly anticipated U.S. presidential election, with early returns favoring Republican nominee Donald Trump. The cryptocurrency jumped more than 8%, reaching above $75,000 for the first time since March, when the euphoria surrounding the launch of U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) sent prices soaring.
As of 10:08 p.m. ET, Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally mirrored the early developments in the presidential race, where Trump had secured preliminary leads in key battleground states such as Georgia and North Carolina. While the election was still in its early stages, the initial numbers seemed to be fueling optimism in Bitcoin markets.
Fredrick Collins, CEO of crypto data platform VeloData, suggested that Bitcoin’s price movements were closely tied to Trump’s electoral prospects. “It has to be because the early numbers are looking good for Trump,” he said. “Bitcoin is one of the top instruments for trading the election tonight. It’s relatively liquid and very tied to the outcome.”
Other cryptocurrencies also saw significant gains. Ethereum, the second-largest digital asset by market cap, rose 6.5%, while Dogecoin—a memecoin closely associated with Trump ally Elon Musk—jumped 18%. “Doge, because of its association with Musk, has been a particular beneficiary,” noted Cosmo Jiang, general partner at crypto-focused investment firm Pantera Capital.
Crypto’s growing influence in U.S. politics was apparent as the industry mobilized a massive campaign-finance operation to advocate for digital assets. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a “Trump trade,” as the former president has positioned himself as the most crypto-friendly candidate. Trump has promised to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world,” with plans to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and appoint regulators who are supportive of digital assets if he wins re-election. In contrast, Harris has adopted a more cautious stance, advocating for a regulatory framework for crypto rather than a full embrace.
The cryptocurrency market was bracing for heightened volatility, with traders expecting significant price swings in the days following the election. According to Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, Bitcoin options data indicated that markets were pricing in a potential 8% move in either direction following the election results, compared to the usual 2% daily swings.
This increased volatility was reflected in the 30-day implied volatility index for Bitcoin, which reached its highest level since July, when political turmoil—such as President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election—had previously roiled markets. This index, compiled by CF Benchmarks Ltd., measures market expectations of future price fluctuations and is derived from Bitcoin options pricing on the CME Group.
As traders positioned themselves ahead of the vote, Bitcoin ETF investors were cautious, with the funds experiencing record outflows of $579.5 million on the Monday before the election. Despite this, Bitcoin’s performance in 2024 has far outpaced traditional assets, with a more than 70% gain year-to-date—surpassing the returns of global stocks and gold.
The surge in Bitcoin’s price this year was largely driven by strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, including funds launched by major financial institutions like BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments. These ETFs, which saw about $23.6 billion in net inflows in 2024, were approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after a court reversal in 2023, marking one of the most eagerly awaited events in the digital asset industry.
Crypto executives are optimistic that either a Trump or Harris administration would offer a more favorable environment for digital assets compared to the regulatory crackdown seen under President Biden. The Biden administration has been accused of using enforcement actions, rather than a clear regulatory framework, to govern the industry. The SEC, under Chairman Gary Gensler, has been particularly critical of the sector, citing concerns over fraud and non-compliance, especially after the collapse of major crypto firms like Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange in 2022.
For many in the crypto space, the 2024 election represents a pivotal moment. A victory for Trump, who has positioned himself as a staunch ally of the industry, would likely signal a friendlier regulatory environment. Conversely, Harris’ more regulatory-focused approach could still provide clarity and stability for the sector, which has struggled to navigate the evolving regulatory landscape under Biden.
As the election results continue to roll in, Bitcoin and other digital assets remain on the frontlines of the political debate, with traders keenly watching every development in the race for the White House.
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