Japan’s parliament is scheduled to vote on a new prime minister on Monday, with Shigeru Ishiba poised to retain the position despite a setback in last month’s national election. Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the lower house during the October 27 vote, but divisions within the opposition ensure that Ishiba is still likely to secure reappointment in a runoff election.
Following the vote, Ishiba is expected to travel to Peru for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and then on to Brazil for the G20 summit. Japanese officials are also arranging a potential meeting between Ishiba and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump during a U.S. stopover on his return trip to Japan later this month.
Although Ishiba is set to remain in office, his position is precarious due to the weakened status of his coalition government after the election. The LDP and Komeito will now require support from opposition parties to pass significant legislation, including a ¥13 trillion ($85 billion) economic stimulus budget. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP), a small party aligned with the LDP on certain issues, is expected to play a crucial role in providing this support.
DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki, whose party could be key to passing the budget, is currently facing political turbulence. A local magazine report alleging marital infidelity has raised doubts about his leadership, though Tamaki confirmed the allegations were largely true and remains committed to supporting Ishiba in the parliamentary vote.
Other opposition parties are expected to vote for their own leaders, and with the opposition fragmented, Ishiba is likely to secure enough votes to advance to the runoff. This ensures that he will retain the prime ministership, barring any unexpected developments.
Despite this, Ishiba’s political future remains uncertain. His decision to call a snap election, which ultimately backfired, has eroded his standing. As the government faces the challenge of passing the national budget and managing a minority government, internal pressures within the LDP could lead to calls for his replacement. Professor Masaki Taniguchi of the University of Tokyo noted that the passage of the national budget next spring could trigger a leadership change, with the LDP facing another major election for the upper house next July.
Ishiba’s interactions with the incoming Trump administration will also be closely watched. While Japan managed to navigate the first Trump presidency through strong ties between Trump and the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Ishiba’s handling of U.S.-Japan relations will be tested. Trump’s criticism of Japan’s yen weakness and his demands for Japan to pay more for the U.S. military presence will likely remain central issues as the two leaders engage on the international stage.
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