Gold is poised to hit new record highs in 2025, driven by increased central bank purchases and anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The firm, which identified gold as one of its top commodity trades for the year, forecast prices could reach as high as $3,000 per ounce by December 2025.
In a note led by analyst Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs outlined that the primary driver behind the forecasted rally would be structural demand from central banks, with cyclical support coming from flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as the Federal Reserve lowers rates.
Gold has already enjoyed a strong rally in 2024, hitting successive records before a brief pullback following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, which boosted the U.S. dollar. The surge in gold prices has been largely fueled by increased buying from official sector entities and the Fed’s shift toward a more dovish monetary policy. Goldman suggests that a Trump administration may further support the bullish outlook for gold, citing the potential for heightened trade tensions and concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability.
An escalation in trade conflicts could reignite speculative demand for gold, the analysts noted. Additionally, growing worries about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy may prompt central banks, particularly those holding large reserves of U.S. Treasury securities, to diversify into gold.
As of now, spot gold is priced at approximately $2,589 per ounce, having recently peaked above $2,790. The metal’s trajectory remains closely linked to broader geopolitical and economic factors, including U.S. monetary policy and trade relations.
In other commodity forecasts, Goldman projected that Brent crude oil will trade between $70 and $85 per barrel in 2025. However, near-term risks to oil prices are seen, particularly if the Trump administration intensifies sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. Base metals were favored over ferrous metals, and short-term upside risks were noted for European natural gas prices due to weather-related factors.
“The new U.S. administration further raises the risks to Iran’s oil supply,” the analysts said, pointing to the possibility of more stringent enforcement of sanctions as part of a maximum-pressure strategy. “Increased U.S. support for Israel could also raise the likelihood of disruptions to Iran’s oil assets.”
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