China’s export growth is expected to accelerate in December, as producers reportedly rushed to move inventory to key global markets ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to office and potential new trade challenges.
According to a Reuters poll of 17 economists, outbound shipments likely rose by 7.3% year-on-year in December, surpassing November’s 6.7% growth. This increase suggests that manufacturers are stepping up their efforts to capitalize on the global market before the possibility of heightened trade risks.
Imports, however, are expected to have fallen by 1.5% in December, a smaller decline compared to the 3.9% drop in the previous month. This suggests that businesses are securing tech products in anticipation of stricter semiconductor export controls from the United States.
Despite challenges such as an ongoing property crisis and deflationary pressures, China’s export strength appears to be holding steady. The upcoming data, scheduled for release on Monday, reflects resilience in outbound shipments.
Economists, however, have varying expectations. While JP Morgan forecasts a 7.9% increase in exports, Standard Chartered anticipates a more modest 5.4% growth. Most analysts expect imports to continue contracting for the third consecutive month, although Standard Chartered predicts a slight 1.5% uptick.
Import data from South Korea, a key indicator of China’s imports, showed an 8.6% increase in shipments to China in December, suggesting a possible rebound in early 2025. Barclays Research noted that exporters could continue front-loading their shipments, although uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies remains a concern.
Trump has proposed tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports and recently dismissed a report suggesting his team may scale back tariff plans. This uncertainty, combined with strained relations with the European Union—especially over tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles—adds to the complexity of the trade landscape. In response, Beijing has targeted European goods, such as brandy, with anti-dumping investigations.
As China faces these external pressures, economists continue to urge a shift in the country’s economic model, reducing reliance on investment and exports while focusing more on consumption-driven growth to avoid long-term stagnation. In response to these challenges, President Xi Jinping has promised more proactive policies to boost economic growth in 2025, with an emphasis on increasing domestic demand. The government has set a target of around 5% growth for this year.
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