The Indian Rupee (INR) remained stable on Thursday, showing little movement as traders await fresh catalysts to guide its next move. Concerns over the impact of trade tariffs and significant Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) outflows are putting pressure on the currency. In the first six weeks of 2025, FPIs sold over $10 billion worth of Indian equities, marking the largest outflow for this period on record. This massive selloff has contributed to the worst start for Indian markets in over a decade.
Despite these challenges, the Indian Rupee has found some support from potential US Dollar (USD) selling interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and a decline in crude oil prices. These factors could help cushion the INR from further losses. Investors are closely monitoring key US economic data, including the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the CB Leading Economic Index, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, all of which are scheduled for release later today. Additionally, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, and Alberto Musalem will likely influence market sentiment.
Currently, the USD/INR pair maintains a bullish bias, holding above the critical 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral 50 mark, suggesting continued support for buyers in the short term.
The immediate upside resistance for USD/INR is seen at the psychological 87.00 level. A sustained move above this level could trigger a rally toward an all-time high near 88.00, with further targets at 88.50.
On the downside, the first support level to watch is 86.58, which marks the low from February 17. A deeper pullback could see the pair testing the 86.35 level, followed by 86.14, the low from January 27.
In summary, while the INR holds steady, the market remains focused on upcoming US data and potential RBI actions, with the USD/INR pair staying above key technical levels, favoring further bullish momentum in the near term.
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