As markets head into the week of March 10-14, 2025, all eyes remain on the US Dollar Index (DXY) and its battle for stability. After enduring its most significant weekly loss since November 2022, the key question for traders is whether the dollar’s downward trajectory will persist, or if we have reached a crucial turning point. Here’s a look at the outlook for the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and XAUUSD for the upcoming week.
DXY (US Dollar Index) Forecast: A Pivotal Week Ahead
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is navigating turbulent waters, following its steepest decline in over a year. The price action in 2025 eerily mirrors the bearish trend observed from September 2022 to January 2023. Although it’s uncertain whether history will repeat itself, this pattern is hard to ignore, as it suggests a potential drop to the 100.00 level—a key support seen in both 2023 and 2024.
Dollar bulls face a significant challenge in recovering from last week’s steep losses. If they fail to regain crucial resistance levels, the DXY could be poised for further declines throughout 2025.
EURUSD Forecast: Resistance Looms at Key Levels
EURUSD has surged impressively since the start of March, rallying nearly 500 pips within just five days. This rapid upward movement mirrors the price action witnessed in November 2022, prompting a closer examination of its sustainability. However, the pair now faces formidable resistance at the trendline near 1.0850, a level that has repeatedly held firm since late 2022.
The 1.0850-1.0900 region remains a critical battleground for bulls, with any significant break above it potentially signaling further gains. However, traders should exercise caution, as markets rarely maintain such momentum without corrections. Support for EURUSD is found at 1.0777, while 1.0850-1.0900 remains the key resistance area to watch.
GBPUSD Forecast: Bullish Momentum Still in Control
The British pound has benefitted from a weakening US dollar, with GBPUSD breaking through key resistance levels at 1.2680 and 1.2800. The 1.2800 zone now serves as strong support, while resistance lies at the 1.3050 highs from November 2024.
Although a dip below 1.2800 could trigger a pullback toward 1.2680, the overall trend remains favorable for GBPUSD bulls, who are targeting a retest of the 1.3050 resistance. Market sentiment remains bullish as long as the pair stays above 1.2800.
AUDUSD Forecast: Range-Bound with Risk Sentiment in Play
AUDUSD has seen notable swings, moving from a shorting opportunity two weeks ago to a buying setup last week. On Tuesday, the pair breached the 0.6255 resistance, clearing the way for a move toward 0.6330, which was quickly realized within 24 hours.
Currently, AUDUSD remains range-bound, with 0.6330 acting as a significant resistance level for the upcoming week. The Australian dollar, being sensitive to risk sentiment, faces headwinds from ongoing weakness in the US stock market, which continues to pressure currencies like the AUD and NZD. As long as stocks remain weak, the outlook for AUDUSD will be constrained.
XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast: Bullish Reversal Faces Key Resistance
Gold prices are currently consolidating after confirming a false breakout on February 25, signaling a pullback toward the $2,882 and $2,830 levels. This decline caused XAUUSD to break through its 2025 trendline, which is now acting as resistance.
While the yellow metal remains range-bound for now, a reclaim of the $2,940 region would indicate bullish momentum and open the door for a potential move toward $3,000. However, the 2025 trendline resistance remains a key challenge for gold bulls. To establish a clear bullish trend, gold will need to break above both $2,940 and the trendline on higher timeframes.
In the meantime, traders can expect continued sideways action, with support near $2,882 and resistance around $2,940.
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