Bernstein analysts recently examined whether Walmart can close the gap with Amazon in the e-commerce space. Their comparison focuses on growth, profitability, category exposure, and valuation.
Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce business has been growing at over 20% annually and is projected to continue this strong growth through fiscal year 2030. Bernstein predicts Walmart’s e-commerce penetration will increase from 17% in FY25 to 25% by FY30, reflecting a 12% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for e-commerce sales.
This growth is largely driven by the expansion of its third-party (3P) marketplace, which currently contributes 20% of its e-commerce gross merchandise value (GMV). Bernstein estimates that if 3P sales reach one-third of Walmart’s total GMV by FY30, the 3P business could see a 26% CAGR, far outpacing the 11% growth expected for Walmart’s first-party (1P) e-commerce.
However, Bernstein notes that Walmart’s key advantage in e-commerce lies in its dominant position in grocery sales, which make up 60% of its e-commerce GMV. In contrast, Amazon’s grocery sales account for just 5% of its GMV. Amazon’s GMV is largely driven by general merchandise, which makes up 73% of its total, compared to Walmart’s 26%.
Amazon remains the leader in the U.S. e-commerce market with a 41% share in 2024. Bernstein highlights that Amazon’s robust fulfillment network allows it to offer fast and reliable delivery, with an extensive product range at competitive prices. Last year, Amazon expanded its same-day delivery network by more than 60%, now covering over 140 metro areas, which helps drive growth in everyday essentials and health products.
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