Goldman Sachs has forecasted that the incoming U.S. president will have limited capacity to significantly enhance domestic oil supply in 2025. In a note to clients on Thursday, the bank highlighted that the current levels of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are low and that easing regulations might only contribute to a gradual increase in long-term U.S. oil production.
Oil prices saw a modest increase on Friday, following the release of U.S. economic data that exceeded analysts’ expectations. This uplift has spurred investor optimism regarding potential rises in crude oil demand from the United States, the world’s leading energy consumer.
The Brent crude futures for September were trading at approximately $82 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for the same month was around $78 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs anticipates that Brent crude prices will fluctuate between $75 and $90 throughout 2025. This projection assumes a steady growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and consistent oil demand, alongside market adjustments by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners.
Despite the prevailing uncertainty surrounding trade policies, the bank suggests that broad-based tariffs on U.S. crude imports are unlikely. However, Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices could face a decline of up to $11 per barrel next year if the U.S. imposes a general 10% tariff on imported goods, due to weaker demand and GDP growth.
Moreover, the bank warns that if the Federal Reserve postpones interest rate cuts past 2025 due to persistent core inflation, oil prices could drop by as much as $19 per barrel. In such a scenario, Brent crude could average $62 in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the current forecast of $81 per barrel.
