Republican nominee Donald Trump surged to an early Electoral College lead over Democratic challenger Kamala Harris, but critical battleground states—including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—remained tightly contested as polls closed in over two-thirds of the U.S. states. Early results were favorable for Trump, who gained preliminary leads in Georgia and North Carolina, though the pivotal swing states likely to decide the presidency had yet to be called.
Trump’s path to victory seemed more likely as he led in Georgia by five percentage points, with more than three-quarters of the vote tallied, and also edged ahead in North Carolina. But as ballots continued to be counted in the key Rust Belt states, attention turned to Michigan, where results were expected to come in faster and where Democrats hoped for signs of strength in Harris’s camp.
Elsewhere, both candidates had secured their expected wins in more predictable states. Trump easily claimed his home state of Florida, buoyed by strong support in key Hispanic counties, while Harris took Democratic strongholds like New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. The Republicans also gained ground in West Virginia, with the state’s open Senate seat flipping to their column.
As the results trickled in, stock market futures reflected the uncertainty. S&P 500 futures rose over 1%, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields jumped 15 basis points to a four-month high of 4.42%, and Bitcoin rallied 5.1%, signaling market optimism tied to a potential Republican victory. Betting markets also saw a shift, with Trump’s odds of winning the election climbing.
Exit polls from a consortium of networks—NBC News, Fox News, and CNN—revealed that democracy and the economy were top issues for voters. Around 35% of voters said that the state of democracy was their primary concern, while 31% cited the economy. Abortion ranked as a key issue for 14% of voters, with immigration following at 11%. A striking gender divide emerged on the issue of abortion, with 19% of women naming it their top issue compared to just 8% of men. In contrast, only 4% of voters prioritized foreign policy.
On economic issues, nearly half (48%) of voters expressed concern about the cost of gas, while 51% were troubled by housing costs. Just 26% of voters said they were satisfied with the current state of the economy, while a significant 72% expressed dissatisfaction. President Joe Biden’s approval rating stood at a low 41%.
Both candidates had framed their campaigns around contrasting visions for the future. Trump focused on the economy, framing the race as a referendum on the country’s economic struggles under the current administration, while Harris campaigned on preserving democratic norms and casting herself as a voice of change. Democrats were hoping that female voters, galvanized by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn federal abortion rights, could counterbalance Trump’s strength among male voters.
On election day, Trump cast his ballot at a recreation center in Palm Beach, Florida, alongside his wife, Melania Trump, and later stopped by his campaign headquarters to thank staff. He expressed confidence in his chances but encouraged supporters to remain in line and ensure their votes were counted. Harris, who had voted by mail in California, spent the day doing radio interviews in key battleground states and supporting phone banking efforts at Democratic National Committee headquarters.
As the night wore on, it became clear that the final election tally might not be known for several days, especially with key battleground states working through large numbers of early ballots. This delay raised concerns about legal challenges and potential unrest, especially after the turmoil surrounding the 2020 election. Some Democrats expressed concerns that Trump might prematurely declare victory, echoing his actions in 2020, when he baselessly claimed fraud as votes continued to be counted.
In Georgia, long lines were reported, and minor disruptions occurred when bogus bomb threats briefly delayed voting at some locations. The FBI attributed the threats to Russian email domains. Despite these issues, Georgia officials assured voters that the state would not be intimidated.
Harris’s campaign noted strong turnout among Pennsylvania’s Puerto Rican community, with outreach efforts focusing on Hispanic voters, particularly in response to controversial remarks made by Trump surrogates. In North Carolina, Democrats reported long lines on college campuses, while Trump was performing strongly in rural, downstate counties, which are key to his base in Georgia.
In Nevada, which has seen large turnout, especially among youth voters, the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas was transformed into the largest polling location in state history. Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar highlighted the high voter engagement, especially among younger demographics.
Control of Congress was another key focal point in the election, with both parties vying for dominance. Polls indicated that a complete sweep—where one party controls both the White House and Congress—was unlikely, which could limit the incoming president’s ability to push through their policy agenda.
Notable Senate races saw wins and losses across the map. Independent Senator Bernie Sanders secured reelection in Vermont, while Republican Jim Justice flipped West Virginia’s Senate seat, previously held by Joe Manchin. In North Carolina, Democrat Josh Stein defeated Republican Mark Robinson in the governor’s race, a particularly high-profile contest given Robinson’s controversial past remarks.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most contentious in modern U.S. history, following a volatile campaign season marked by legal challenges, partisan divisions, and record amounts of campaign spending. Over $14.8 billion has been spent on the race, surpassing 2020’s levels, with contributions pouring in from both small-dollar donors and wealthy figures like Elon Musk.
As Harris watched the returns from her alma mater, Howard University, in Washington, D.C., Trump’s campaign hosted a watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center. The coming hours and days will be critical in determining not only who wins the presidency but also what kind of mandate the new administration will have as it takes office.
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