MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) – The Russian rouble saw a decline against both the U.S. dollar and China’s yuan on Monday, as new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil sector and rising oil prices put pressure on the currency. However, the rouble’s losses were partly cushioned by the surge in global oil prices and an increase in foreign exchange sales by the Russian government.
By 1000 GMT, the rouble had weakened by 0.7% to 102.45 against the dollar, according to over-the-counter market data. It also dropped 0.8% to 13.81 against the yuan in trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX). The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency in Russia, as China uses it to settle payments for energy imports from Russia.
On January 10, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as 183 vessels involved in transporting Russian oil. Despite this, oil prices climbed above $81 per barrel, marking their highest level in more than four months, providing some support to the rouble.
The Russian Finance Ministry announced on Friday that state forex sales would increase by nearly a third, reaching 4.76 billion roubles ($46.42 million) per day starting from January 15. The ministry’s forex interventions are part of a broader scheme managed by the central bank, which helps ensure liquidity in the domestic market and supports Russia’s National Wealth Fund (NWF).
Due to Western sanctions, Russia’s central bank is unable to buy or sell U.S. dollars or euros, making the yuan the primary currency used for these operations. Last month, the central bank had helped support the rouble by postponing foreign currency purchases on behalf of the Finance Ministry. Following a sharp drop in November, when the rouble hit its lowest level in around 2-1/2 years in response to previous U.S. sanctions, the rouble has since stabilized at around 100 per dollar— a level that market analysts now consider a new equilibrium.
Analysts also pointed to geopolitical developments as a key factor influencing the rouble. Speculation surrounding potential Russia-U.S. talks, highlighted by the incoming administration, provided additional support for the rouble. “Geopolitics will remain the key factor influencing the rouble’s exchange rate in the near future,” analysts from T-Bank said.
In the futures market, one-day rouble/dollar contracts traded on MOEX were up 0.5%, reaching 103.53, while the Russian central bank set the official exchange rate at 101.91.
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