Goldman Sachs analysts indicated on Monday that the copper market is pricing in roughly a 50% likelihood of a 10% U.S. tariff on copper by the end of the first quarter of this year. This estimate aligns with the investment bank’s own assessment of the chance for such a tariff by year-end.
As of 0706 GMT, three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange were down 0.3%, trading at $9,167 per metric ton, following a one-month high reached last week.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to return to the White House, traders are closely watching his inauguration speech for clues on his policy agenda, which could include tariffs on global imports, with the possibility of up to a 10% tariff on copper, along with steeper levies on Chinese goods and imports from Canada and Mexico.
In addition, Goldman noted that the oil market is factoring in a nearly 40% chance of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, including oil, though the bank’s own probability estimate for such a tariff is 15% by the end of 2025.
Brent crude futures were hovering around $80.69 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April was steady at $77.36.
The bank also assigned a 10% chance for a 10% tariff on gold within the next 12 months, given gold’s status as a financial asset, which makes it less likely to be impacted by broad tariffs.
Spot gold prices rose 0.3% to $2,708.77 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures remained flat at $2,749.70. In the past six weeks, the amount of gold stocks in COMEX-approved warehouses has increased by a third, as market participants sought to hedge against the potential of tariffs.
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