Oil is on track for its largest weekly increase since early January, buoyed by rising supply uncertainties and the support of a weaker U.S. dollar. Brent crude remained above $76 per barrel, marking a more than 2% gain for the week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $72. Ongoing supply disruptions, including potential delays in OPEC+’s production increase and continued setbacks in Kazakhstan and Iraq, have fueled market volatility.
The possibility that OPEC+ will delay its planned 120,000 barrels per day production hike, as suggested by delegates, would represent the fourth such postponement since 2022. Currently, the alliance plans to gradually restore 2.2 million barrels per day in monthly increments beginning in April.
“OPEC’s challenge of unwinding production cuts without destabilizing the oil market is becoming more complex,” said Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari, analysts at ANZ Group Holdings. “With ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and the need to support oil prices, we anticipate that OPEC will push back its production increase.”
Oil prices have faced volatility this year, largely influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump’s swift tariff actions and broader policy shifts, coupled with concerns over global supply disruptions. The specter of U.S. trade measures, including tariffs, which could hurt global growth, has led to the erosion of much of this year’s earlier gains in crude futures.
Additionally, the U.S. has signaled the potential for sanctions relief for Russia, contingent on its willingness to engage in negotiations over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Washington was prepared to adjust sanctions based on Russia’s cooperation.
Further boosting oil prices, the weakening U.S. dollar has made commodities more attractive to buyers. A Bloomberg index of the U.S. currency dropped to its lowest level since December on Thursday, contributing to a more favorable environment for oil.
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