A second Donald Trump administration could introduce new tariffs that may send shockwaves through the technology sector, with e-commerce software vendors among the most vulnerable, according to analysts at Bank of America (BofA).
While trade discussions have largely focused on manufacturing and consumer goods, software companies with significant exposure to global supply chains—especially those reliant on cloud infrastructure and hardware imports—could see their profit margins shrink as tariffs drive up costs, BofA analysts warned in a recent note.
A potential revision to the de minimis exemption, which currently allows low-value imports to enter the U.S. without duties, could further strain e-commerce platforms, the report said.
Among the firms most at risk, BofA identified Shopify Inc. (TSX: SHOP), BigCommerce (NASDAQ: BIGC), and Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (NYSE: LSPD)—all of which depend on cross-border transactions and integrated logistics. Higher import duties on goods moving through these platforms could lead to lower transaction volumes and increased merchant costs, ultimately impacting their revenue models.
By contrast, enterprise software companies with a primarily domestic customer base and minimal reliance on international trade may be better positioned to weather the potential tariff changes, analysts noted.
Some leading e-commerce firms may attempt to offset the impact by adjusting pricing strategies or passing additional costs to customers. However, with growing competition in the sector, pricing power remains a major concern for investors.
Recent market volatility in e-commerce software stocks reflects broader uncertainty over U.S. trade policies, analysts said, underscoring the sector’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments.
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