Boeing (NYSE: BA) has revised its projection for China’s commercial airplane requirements in the next two decades, buoyed by the nation’s robust economic expansion and the resurgence of domestic air travel. The U.S. aviation giant announced on Wednesday that China is expected to need 8,560 new commercial aircraft by 2042, marking an increase from its previous estimate of 8,485, as outlined in the company’s annual 20-year forecast.
This upward adjustment is attributed to China’s impressive recovery in domestic air travel, which gained momentum after the country emerged from stringent COVID-19 controls late last year. Boeing’s Vice President of Commercial Marketing, Darren Hulst, remarked, “Domestic air travel in China has already exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and international traffic is steadily rebounding.”
The escalating demand is poised to position China’s aviation market as the world’s largest, accounting for one-fifth of global aircraft deliveries over the next two decades, according to Boeing. In a statement titled “Boeing: Fast-growing China domestic air travel driving 20-year demand for 8,560 airplanes,” the company emphasized that China is projected to contribute to 20% of the global airplane demand until 2042.
Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the company’s long-term forecast for commercial aircraft demand and related services, anticipates that China’s commercial airliner fleet will more than double to nearly 9,600 aircraft over the next two decades. This remarkable growth is propelled by economic expansion well above the global average and an escalating appetite for domestic air travel.
Furthermore, Boeing envisions that China’s domestic aviation market will clinch the title of the world’s largest by the end of the forecast period, catalyzing demand for 6,470 single-aisle airplanes, including the Boeing 737 MAX family. Alongside the surge in single-aisle jet demand, Chinese carriers are anticipated to require 1,550 widebody aircraft, primarily to support an expanding network of international routes.
The forecast also predicts that China’s commercial aircraft fleet will generate a demand of $675 billion in aviation services, spanning maintenance, repair, training, and spare parts. Approximately two-thirds of these service demands will be driven by the forecasted deliveries in China, while the remainder will involve replacing older aircraft with modern counterparts that enhance efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions.
This year notably marks the 50th anniversary of Boeing airplanes’ service in China. Since 1972, when China placed an order for 10 707 jets to modernize its commercial fleet, Boeing aircraft have become an integral component of China’s air travel and cargo infrastructure.
In a related development, the sighting of an Air China (OTC: AIRYY) Boeing 747 at Boeing’s South Carolina facilities has ignited online speculation about a potential order from Air China to Boeing, with an announcement anticipated in the near future.
